It’s time to ignore perma-bear economists

During the ongoing crisis we have found culprits and heroes: Mr Greenspan, a brilliant economist that led the world economies for two decades, is the culprit. Now that a torrid recession has materialized, the heroes are those that predict a recession since the end of last one. Now they run all over the world gaining credibility (and money) just saying how desperate the situation is and how worse could get in the near future. But they are right just one year over ten; so (tell me): are they good forecasters or this time were they lucky? If a random walk is a good benchmark, if you are wrong more than 50:50, leave and apply for another job.

http://voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3601